Viewing a prediction interval

A prediction interval is a range of values associated with a prediction and a confidence level (for example, 95%). For a given set of prediction assumptions, future observations can be expected to fall within the interval a specified percent of the time. For example, if the prediction interval is 10-20, and the confidence level is 95%, you can expect 95% of observations to fall between 10 and 20, and 5% of observations to fall outside that range. The prediction interval takes into account both randomness in the model and uncertainty in the parameter estimates. Prediction intervals are often more useful than a single predicted value because they reflect the uncertainty inherent in predictive modeling.

To view a prediction interval:

  1. In the Predict view, select Prediction interval from the button labeled Display at the bottom of the window
  2. Set the slider to the desired confidence level

The prediction interval will then appear in place of the predicted value.

See also:

Back to Wizard Help